Urban Development Boundary Simulation Based on “Double Evaluation” and FLUS Model

doi:10.11947/j.JGGS.2022.0202

Abstract

Abstract:

The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space. “Double evaluation” is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land. This study combines the “double evaluation” with the FLUS (Future Land-Use Simulation) model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang. The results show that: ① the “double evaluation” method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development; ② the FLUS model can better couple the “double evaluation” method for Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) suitability evaluation, Land Use/land Cover Change (LUCC) simulation and urban development boundary delineation, and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%; ③ according to the requirements of relevant national policies, this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas, elastic development areas and special purpose areas. This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development, ecological protection and urban safety. This research combines the FLUS model, which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC, with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary. This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.

Key words: urban development boundaries; double evaluation; FLUS (Future Land-Use Simulation) model; land spatial layout optimization

Xuchen JIANG,Meng WANG,Gang XU,Bingwang FANG,Kun QIN,Rui XIAO. Urban Development Boundary Simulation Based on “Double Evaluation” and FLUS Model[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geoinformation Science, 2022, 5(2): 7-18.

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Particular year	Urban construction land	Forest and grassland	Garden plot	Water	Cultivated land	Other Construction land	Other
2012	291.33	13570.52	1608.26	672.95	3896.67	793.20	397.07
2018	334.13	13592.79	1589.82	677.33	3863.77	777.33	394.83
2035	481.63	13665.02	1526.74	692.38	3751.39	725.75	387.09

Category	Area
Forest and grassland	45.78
Garden plot	87.43
Water	9.38
Cultivated land (basic farmland)	78.02(4.83)
Other construction land	83.89
Other	17.82